PREPRINTS

Preprint IBRAE-99-11

Afanasiev A.A. 

Methodological bases of valuation of economic damage due to energy objects impact on the people health and the environment are considered. It is shown that the most adequate measure of environmental damage appropriate for use in the cost-benefit analysis is the cost of environmental risk. Different techniques of risks and damages valuation, including economic valuation of environmental effects that have no market prices, are discussed. A particular attention is made to the definition of discounting rate appropriate for economic valuations of environmental damage. An analysis of valuations of health risks is carried out. 

Bibliographical reference

Afanasiev A.A. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF POWER CYCLES: 2. METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS OF VALUATION OF ECONOMIC DAMAGE (in Russian). Preprint IBRAE-99-11. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. December 1999. 48 p. — Refs.: 112 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-10

Trutse A.A., Savelieva E.A., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Timonin V.A., Chernov S.Yu. 

The work is devoted to an application of self-organizing Kohonen maps for classification of data on environmental contamination by several substancies. Values of contamination of those substancies are correlated. The reconstruction of lost data is performed on the base of obtained classification map. Detailed analysis of results of reconstruction was performed. Correspondance of statistical characteristics and spatial correlation structure of reconstructed values and initial data were analysed. 

Bibliographical reference

Trutse A.A., Savelieva E.A., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Timonin V.A., Chernov S.Yu. SELF-ORGANIZING MAPS’ APPLICATION TO CLASSIFICATION AND ANALYSIS OF SPATIALY DISTRIBUTED ENVIRONMENTAL NON-FULL DATA. Preprint IBRAE-99-10. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. November 1999. 40 p. — Refs.: 7 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-09

Timonin V.A., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F. 

Application of different methods of non-linear optimisation is considered for training of multilayer perceptron ANN. Stochastic, genetic and deterministic optimisation algorithms are considered. Different methods are applied to the real data on the radioactive soil contamination of the Chernobyl fallout. 

Bibliographical reference

Timonin V.A., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F. REVIEW AND APPLICATION OF NON-LINEAR OPTIMISATION METHODS FOR TRAINING OF MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON. Preprint IBRAE-99-09. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. November 1999. 28 p. — Refs.: 15 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-08

Veshchunov M.S. 

Modelling of the complicated behaviour of hydrogen in the oxidising Zry cladding observed in the high burnup fuel tests, is attempted. The developed model is based on the previous approach to the description of the hydrogen penetration mechanism through the growing oxide scale of the Zr cladding, self-consistently combined with modelling of the multicomponent (hydrogen-oxygen) diffusion in the two-phase zone (hydrides in the metal matrix). As a result, this allows natural explanation of the observed steep spatial gradients in the hydride distribution over the Zr cladding, leading to the brittle mechanical behaviour of the cladding and PCMI failure of the high burnup fuel rods. 

Bibliographical reference

Veshchunov M.S. MODELLING OF ZIRCALOY CLADDING HYDRIDING IN HIGH BURNUP FUEL TESTS. Preprint IBRAE-99-08. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. November 1999. 14 p. — Refs.: 19 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-07

Grachev N.S., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Savelieva E.A., Timonin V.A., Chernov S.Y. 

In this work methods of mapping spatial data by Neural Network and Geostatistic are analysed. Effects of structure in initial data and Network configuration on model quality is studied. All models are applied to real radioactive pollution data in Briansk region. 

Bibliographical reference

Grachev N.S., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Savelieva E.A., Timonin V.A., Chernov S.Y. ANALYZING OF ENVIRONMENTAL DATA WITH GRNN AND GEOSTATISTICS. Preprint IBRAE-99-07. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. November 1999. 39 p. — Refs.: 14 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-06

Polishchuk V.V., Kanevski M.F. 

Application of radial basis function neural networks to spatailly distributed data is studied. Geostatistics is used to qualify the results. Network extention allows to obtain the estimate variance. «Thick contour» isolines are presented as the outputs for decision making. 

Bibliographical reference

Polishchuk V.V., Kanevski M.F. APPLICATION AND DEVELOPMENT OF RADIAL BASIS FUNCTION ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS TO ANALYSIS AND MODELING OF SPATIALLY DISTRIBUTE INFORMATION. Preprint IBRAE-99-06. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. 1999. 27 p. — Refs.: 19 items.

Preprint IBRAE-1999-05

The work is devoted to description of several approaches how to analyse and forecast electrical load and consumption. Materials of works supported by the largest elecrtoproductive world companies were used for analysis. Some approaches based on statistics, geostatistics and artificial neural networks were applied to real Russian data on electrical load. Obtained results confirm a perspectiveness of application of scientific methods to improve electrical load forecasting.

Bibliographical reference 

R. Arutyunyan, V. Bogdanov, L. Bolshov, V. Demyanov, M. Kanevski, A. Lasarev, V. Ogar, E. Savelieva, V. Timonin, S. Chernov, V. Jushin. Consumption of electricity forecasting: time series analysis, geostatistics, artificial neural networks. (in Russian). Preprint IBRAE--99--05. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute, June 1999. 45 p.

Preprint IBRAE-99-03

Kravetski A.S., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Savelieva E.A., Timonin V.A, Chernov S.Y. 

In this work methods of mapping spatial data by Neural Network and Geostatistic are analyzed. The effect of Network configuration on model quality is studied. The results are presented as maps of soil contamination. All models are applied to real radioactive pollution data in Briansk region. 

Bibliographical reference

Kravetski A.S., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Savelieva E.A., Timonin V.A, Chernov S.Y. MAPPING OF SPATIAL DATA WITH MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON AND GEOSTATISTICS. Preprint IBRAE-99-03. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. 1999. 41 p. — Refs.: 12 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-03

Kravetski A.S., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Savelieva E.A., Timonin V.A, Chernov S.Y. 

In this work methods of mapping spatial data by Neural Network and Geostatistic are analyzed. The effect of Network configuration on model quality is studied. The results are presented as maps of soil contamination. All models are applied to real radioactive pollution data in Briansk region. 

Bibliographical reference

Kravetski A.S., Demyanov V.V., Kanevski M.F., Savelieva E.A., Timonin V.A, Chernov S.Y. MAPPING OF SPATIAL DATA WITH MULTILAYER PERCEPTRON AND GEOSTATISTICS. Preprint IBRAE-99-03. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. 1999. 41 p. — Refs.: 12 items.

Preprint IBRAE-99-02

Karkhov A.N. 

The role of marginal parameters is treated by the modern micro-economic theory too widely, that  results in significant  distortion of the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of economic processes. This lack of the theory is caused by use so-called "the decreasing revenue law" and a postulate about inevitable increase of average costs with growth of output. In the given work is shown how to construct the theory of micro-economic, being based on not growing costs. The uniform approach to the mathematical description of evolution of monopoly, duopoly and oligopoly in conditions of the market with the given demand function  is  offered, and  the decisions of classical tasks on monopoly, Cournot’s and Stakelberg’s duopoly determine only some optimized initial conditions   of their  equilibrium evolution. The expressions of the market prices basic and circulating capitals of developing firms (technologies) are received. The models of financing of their development by means of crediting (investment) and balance in the financial market are considered. 

Bibliographical reference

Karkhov A.N. MARGINAL COSTS AND EQUILIBRIUM PRICES IN MICRO-ECONOMY (in Russian). Preprint IBRAE-99-02. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute. May 1999. 33 p. — Refs.: 8 items.