METHODICAL ASPECTS OF EVALUATING LONGTERM POPULATION DEVELOPMENT IN CONTAMINATED TERRITORIES (BY EXAMPLE OF THE BRYANSK REGION) (PREPRINT IBRAE-2012-03)

Preprint IBRAE-2012-03

Melikhova E.M., Barkhudarova I.E.

Evaluation of current demographic situation and long-term trends of population development in radiation contaminated territories requires proper choice of reference regions and consistent accounting for statistical errors. Review of last decade publications considering quality of vital statistics in Russia at national and regional levels provided us with basic information for estimation of statistical errors of different demographic indices in Central Russia regions. The errors were not omissible, and the Bryansk Region was taken as an example to get low-bound-estimates of the errors, validate reference regions selection and demonstrate the effect of consistent accounting for statistical errors in comparative analysis. It was shown that after Chernobyl accident demographic development of the Bryansk Region followed the general tendencies of the Central District (excluding the capital city). Against prevailing opinion, the Bryansk Region has never been among outsiders. It has neither progress, no regress in comparison with the typical middling regions of the Central District. A number of publications were analyzed to demonstrate typical mistakes in methods that lead to wrong interpretations of the Bryansk Region demographic situation.

Bibliographical reference 

Melikhova E.M., Barkhudarova I.E. Methodical Aspects of Evaluating Longterm Population Development in Contaminated TerrItories (by Example of the Bryansk Region). Preprint № IBRAE-2012-03. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (IBRAE RAN), 2012. 33 p.