HOW MANY ATTRIBUTABLE CASES OF MORTALITY ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION OCCUR IN RUSSIA? (PREPRINT IBRAE-2001-17)

Preprint IBRAE-2001-17

Arutyunyan R.V., Reshetin V.P., Sorokin V.S.

Assessment of attributable cases of mortality associated with air pollution is presented. The data of daily monitoring of air pollution in 1993 and 1998 carried out by Rosgidromet were used for assessment. To determine the dose-response function, the well known results of Dockery et al., 1993 were applied. In Dockery’s prospective cohort investigations in six US towns, the statistically significant relationship between mortality and air pollution was confirmed. The estimates obtained by direct formal transition of the Dockery’s results to the conditions of Russian cities allowing for the actual level of the atmosphere pollution, result in the number of the premature deaths on the order of 300 thousand annually. Various factors effecting the accuracy of assessments are discussed.   

Bibliographical reference

Arutyunyan R.V., Reshetin V.P., Sorokin V.S. How many attributable cases of mortality associated with air pollution occur in Russia? (in Russian) Preprint IBRAE-2001-17. Moscow: Nuclear Safety Institute, November 2001. 13 p. — Refs.: 14 items.